{"verdict":"Buy","model_verdict":"Strong Buy","confidence_downgraded":true,"score":86.7,"buying_conditions":{"tone":"good","basis":{"range":"0-100","detail":"This is a RELATIVE score: today's composite sits 2.3 standard deviations above its own average over the trailing 27 daily readings (~six months), mapped onto 0-100. So 87/100 means “among the strongest readings in about six months” — it does NOT mean the market is 87% healthy. Higher = better conditions for buying; lower = worse.","direction":"higher_is_better_for_buying","how_unusual":"Among the strongest readings in about six months","relative_to":"its own trailing ~six months of daily readings"},"color":"emerald","label":"Very favorable conditions","plain":"Market conditions are about as favorable as they get versus the market's own recent history.","scale":"0-100, higher is better for buying","score":86.7,"verdict":"Strong Buy","direction":"higher_is_better_for_buying"},"score_basis":{"range":"0-100","detail":"This is a RELATIVE score: today's composite sits 2.3 standard deviations above its own average over the trailing 27 daily readings (~six months), mapped onto 0-100. So 87/100 means “among the strongest readings in about six months” — it does NOT mean the market is 87% healthy. Higher = better conditions for buying; lower = worse.","direction":"higher_is_better_for_buying","how_unusual":"Among the strongest readings in about six months","relative_to":"its own trailing ~six months of daily readings"},"overheating":{"legs":[{"key":"complacency","sub":"Calm volatility, tight credit spreads","tone":"neutral","label":"How cheaply risk is priced","score":77.4},{"key":"euphoria","sub":"Greed and stretched breadth","tone":"neutral","label":"How much the crowd is piling in","score":0.0}],"state":{"key":"calm_unloved","tone":"neutral","label":"Calm and cheaply priced — but the crowd does not love it","plain":"Risk is priced cheaply (calm volatility, tight credit spreads), yet the crowd is not greedy and breadth is not stretched. That is a real, ordinary state — not a bubble, and not a panic. It says nothing about what happens next: markets that looked like this have gone on to rise about as often as usual."},"method":"geometric_mean(complacency, euphoria)","missing":[],"euphoria":0.0,"available":true,"components":[{"key":"vol_complacency","group":"complacency","label":"Volatility is cheap","value":15.19,"missing":false,"sub_score":60.1,"explanation":"VIX 15.2 — calm, protection is cheap"},{"key":"credit_complacency","group":"complacency","label":"Credit risk is cheap","value":2.7,"missing":false,"sub_score":94.7,"explanation":"High-yield spread 2.70% — investors are barely paid to hold default risk"},{"key":"crowd_greed","group":"euphoria","label":"Crowd is greedy","value":54.4,"missing":false,"sub_score":0.0,"explanation":"Fear & Greed 54 — the crowd is not greedy (fear/neutral)"},{"key":"breadth_extension","group":"euphoria","label":"Breadth is stretched","value":0.415,"missing":false,"sub_score":0.0,"explanation":"Breadth 42% — participation is not stretched"}],"complacency":77.4,"method_plain":"Froth needs BOTH a calm, cheaply-priced surface AND a crowd leaning into it. The two halves are combined with a geometric mean, so if either half is absent the gauge reads cold — a low VIX on its own is not a bubble.","composite_gated":{"value":0.0,"label":"Composite froth AND-gate — NOT a standalone gauge","band_label":"Not overheated","band_level":1,"band_color":"green","why_not_headline":"This is the geometric mean of the two legs, so it collapses to ~0 whenever EITHER leg is ~0. It reads the same '0' for a calm, unloved market AND for an outright panic — opposite states — so it is meaningless without both legs. Do not quote it alone; read the two legs and `state` instead."},"headline":"Calm and cheaply priced — but the crowd does not love it (How cheaply risk is priced: 77.4/100; How much the crowd is piling in: 0.0/100).","read_this_not_the_score":"Lead with the two legs and the plain-English state; the single composite number is degenerate and must not be quoted alone."},"computed_at":"2026-08-19T02:00:16.457839+00:00","stale":false,"stale_reason":null,"age_hours":17.12,"action_plan":{"exit":{"tp_basis":"fixed_pct_of_price","tp1_price":806.79,"tp2_price":845.21,"tp1_gain_pct":5.0,"tp2_gain_pct":10.0,"verdict_exits":["Reduce 50% at next open if score drops below 35 (Caution)","Close fully at next open if score drops below 15 (Strong Avoid)","Hold (let TP ladder run) if score drops only to Neutral"],"reference_price":768.37,"time_stop_sessions":90,"trailing_stop_formula":"max(entry × 0.97, current_price − 2 × ATR_20d) with ATR_20d ≈ 1.50% of price","price_levels_available":true},"entry":{"rule":"Enter SPY at next session open, full size","alternatives":[],"invalidation":"Exit if score drops below 65 within 5 sessions"},"sizing":{"hedge":null,"spy_pct":100,"sizing_note":"House baseline sleeve. Not adjusted for this regime's risk/reward — we have not measured it yet.","sizing_basis":"house_default","historical_rr":null,"hist_p_pos_90d":null,"historical_source":"not_measured","auto_downgraded_because_rr":false,"historical_drawdown_90d_pct":null}},"raw":3.11,"date":"2026-08-19","color":"green","level":4,"headline":"Very favorable conditions — Cluster buys 3 (z=+4.6); VIX/VIX3M 0.80 deep contango; Analyst shift +37% (13↑/6↓)","fear_mult":1.0,"confidence":0.4114754586234579,"updated_at":"2026-08-19T02:00:16.457839+00:00","contributors":{"rmt":{"value":2.0579000954706075,"missing":false,"explanation":"RMT λ₁/λ_MP 2.06","contribution":0},"curve":{"value":0.5199999999999996,"missing":false,"explanation":"T10Y2Y +0.52","contribution":0},"breadth":{"value":0.41500000000000004,"missing":false,"explanation":"Breadth 42%","contribution":0},"jobless":{"value":212000.0,"missing":false,"explanation":"Jobless 212,000 (4wMoM -6.6%)","contribution":0},"congress":{"value":-1619003.0,"missing":false,"explanation":"Congress net $-1,619,003 (z=-0.4)","contribution":-0.8},"vix_peak":{"value":15.19,"missing":false,"explanation":"VIX 15.2","contribution":0},"vix_term":{"value":0.7977941176470589,"missing":false,"explanation":"VIX/VIX3M 0.80 deep contango","contribution":-3},"hy_spread":{"value":2.7,"missing":false,"explanation":"HY 2.70% (peak 2.87)","contribution":0},"cluster_buys":{"value":3,"missing":false,"explanation":"Cluster buys 3 (z=+4.6)","contribution":12},"pt_consensus":{"value":1.1654427033690495,"missing":false,"explanation":"PT/Px 1.17","contribution":0},"analyst_shift":{"value":0.3684210526315789,"missing":false,"explanation":"Analyst shift +37% (13↑/6↓)","contribution":2.2},"contrarian_fg":{"value":54.4,"missing":false,"explanation":"F&G 54 × fear persistence 1.00","contribution":0.06},"breadth_thrust":{"value":0.5720000000000001,"missing":false,"explanation":"no thrust (0.57)","contribution":0},"scan_aggregate":{"value":0.0,"missing":false,"explanation":"Scan 0/503 gated BUY","contribution":0.0},"sector_rotation":{"value":0.6709611018138606,"missing":false,"explanation":"Rotation +0.7% (cyclicals leading)","contribution":0.2},"quantum_alignment":{"value":0.0,"missing":false,"explanation":"Quantum +0.0% P=0.50","contribution":0.0},"institutional_flow":{"value":0.3434343434343434,"missing":false,"explanation":"institutional_flow 34% (de-risking, n=99, 47 filers)","contribution":-1.5},"fundamentals_breadth":{"value":0.76,"missing":false,"explanation":"fundamentals_breadth 76% (healthy breadth)","contribution":0.7}},"score_method":"zscore","score_rescale":{"z":2.3449,"mu":-3.9933,"sigma":3.0281,"method":"zscore","z_scale":2.5,"n_history":27,"k_fallback":3.0},"missing_signals":[],"signal_coverage":"18/18","weights_version":"v6","top_contributors":[{"name":"cluster_buys","value":"3","direction":"buy","explanation_short":"Cluster buys 3 (z=+4.6)","contribution_signed":12},{"name":"vix_term","value":"0.7977941176470589","direction":"sell","explanation_short":"VIX/VIX3M 0.80 deep contango","contribution_signed":-3},{"name":"analyst_shift","value":"0.3684210526315789","direction":"buy","explanation_short":"Analyst shift +37% (13↑/6↓)","contribution_signed":2.2},{"name":"institutional_flow","value":"0.3434343434343434","direction":"sell","explanation_short":"institutional_flow 34% (de-risking, n=99, 47 filers)","contribution_signed":-1.5}],"displayed_verdict":"Buy","earnings_modulator":1.05,"verdict_authority":"`verdict` is authoritative on every surface (dashboard, API, MCP): it is the confidence-adjusted tier. `model_verdict` is the tier before the low-confidence downgrade; they differ only when `confidence_downgraded` is true."}