S&P 500 forecast — thousands of simulated futures

Rather than drawing one line into the future, this forecast plays the next few months out thousands of times over. Each run stitches together a possible path from the index's own past daily moves, drawn at random and weighted toward recent history — so the occasional violent day stays possible instead of being averaged away. Collect every run and you get a range: what the index does in the typical future, and how far it strays in the unlucky ones. This is a different method from the per-stock quantum model used elsewhere on the site (see our methodology).

Current S&P 500 index level: 7707.98. Recent trend the simulation carries forward, measured over roughly the last 61 trading days and restated as a yearly rate: +22.5%. That is a model input describing the recent past, not a long-run trend, not an expected return, and not a floor under any outcome. How much the index typically swings, stated as a yearly rate: 12.6%. In 90 of every 100 simulated futures, the index sits between 7378 and 9472 in 90 days' time.

Frequently asked questions

How is the S&P 500 index forecast built?

By playing the next few months out thousands of times over. Each run stitches together a possible path from the index's own past daily moves, drawn at random and weighted toward recent history, so the occasional violent day stays possible instead of being averaged away. Collecting every run gives a typical path plus a range wide enough to contain 90 of every 100 simulated futures. Educational research; not investment advice.

Is this the same model as the per-stock forecasts?

No. Individual S&P 500 stocks are forecast with our quantum model, which borrows the mathematics physicists use to describe where a particle may end up (see our methodology page). This index forecast is a separate and simpler method built on the S&P 500's own price history.

Educational research only — not investment advice.