What is expected growth / target price in a stock forecast?
Expected growth is the probability-weighted average return across every simulated price path the quantum model produces for a ticker at a given horizon — the model's single best-guess return, distilled from thousands of Feynman path-integral simulations. Target price is the same estimate expressed as a dollar level: today's price scaled by (1 + expected growth). Both numbers describe the center of the forecast distribution, not a guarantee.
Why the mean alone is not a signal
A positive expected growth is not, by itself, a BUY signal. The mean of a distribution says nothing about its spread: a stock with +5% expected growth and a narrow CI90 band is a very different bet from a stock with the same +5% expected growth and a CI90 band twice as wide. Quantustik always pairs expected growth/target price with the CI90 band and the growth probability (the share of simulated paths that finished above today's price) so a single point estimate never gets over-read as certainty.
Live example: AAPL's current 3-month expected growth is +12.2% from a price of $309, implying a target price around $346 — with a CI90 band of $304–$401 around that mean. See the full AAPL forecast.
How expected growth turns into a trade plan
Expected growth by itself is directionless noise unless it is combined with entry timing, an invalidation level, and a take-profit ladder — a risk-first BUY signal only fires when multiple independent signals converge and the reward-to-risk ratio clears a 2:1 bar, per Quantustik's own asymmetric-conviction policy.
Frequently asked questions
Is a positive expected growth a buy signal?
No. Expected growth is the mean of a probability distribution, not a signal — it must be read alongside the CI90 band and growth probability to understand the spread of likely outcomes.
How is target price calculated?
Target price is today's price scaled by (1 + expected growth), where expected growth is the probability-weighted mean return across the model's simulated price paths at the chosen horizon.
What's the difference between expected growth and growth probability?
Expected growth is the mean return across all simulated paths; growth probability is the share of those paths that finish above today's price — a distribution can have a small positive mean while most paths are still below the current price.
Educational research only — not investment advice.