Expected growth is the probability-weighted average return across every simulated path the quantum model produces — the model's single best-guess return, never a guarantee.
Target price is the same estimate as a dollar level: today's price scaled by (1 + expected growth). Both describe the center of the forecast distribution, not a promise — a stock with +5% expected growth and a narrow CI90 band is a very different bet from the same +5% with a band twice as wide.
Quantustik always pairs expected growth/target price with the CI90 band and growth probability (the share of simulated paths that finish above today's price) so a point estimate never gets over-read as certainty. A risk-first BUY only fires when multiple independent signals converge and reward-to-risk clears a 2:1 bar.
Live example: AAPL's current 3-month expected growth is +0.6% from a price of $317, implying a target price around $319 — with a CI90 band of $292–$348 around that mean. See the full AAPL forecast.
Expected growth by itself is directionless noise unless it is combined with entry timing, an invalidation level (the price that proves the thesis wrong) and a take-profit ladder. A risk-first BUY signal only fires when multiple independent signals converge and the reward-to-risk ratio clears a 2:1 bar — per Quantustik's own asymmetric-conviction policy, a missed trade is cheap and a bad trade is expensive.
No. Expected growth is the mean of a probability distribution — it must be read alongside the CI90 band and growth probability.
Today's price scaled by (1 + expected growth), where expected growth is the probability-weighted mean return across simulated paths at the chosen horizon.
Expected growth is the mean return across all paths; growth probability is the share of paths finishing above today's price — a distribution can have a small positive mean while most paths are still below the current price.
AAPL analysis shows this metric in context, or browse all S&P 500 tickers.
Educational research only — not investment advice.