Model confidence measures how far a signal's probability sits from a coin-flip (50/50), rescaled to a 0–100% reading of conviction.
A probability of 80% (or 20%) yields 60% confidence; 50% yields 0%. Confidence says nothing about how a ticker's signals have performed historically — pair a signal's stated confidence with that ticker's own backtest accuracy before sizing a position.
Live example: AAPL's current 3-month swing signal carries a stated model confidence of 46%. See the full AAPL forecast for the signal and trade plan this confidence attaches to.
Recommended position size scales with confidence: a low-conviction signal gets little to no allocation even if the raw direction call is technically BUY, because the model itself isn't sure. A weak signal traded at full size is a common way to turn a marginal edge into a losing one.
No. Confidence measures how strong the model's current view is, not whether that view has historically been right — pair it with the ticker's own backtest track record.
As the distance of the underlying probability from 50%, scaled to 0-100% — an 80% or 20% probability both yield 60% confidence.
Recommended position size scales with confidence by design, so a weak signal never gets sized as if it were a strong one.
AAPL analysis shows this metric in context, or browse all S&P 500 tickers.
Educational research only — not investment advice.