Forecasts — S&P 500, VIX, Fear & Greed

Three independently-modelled market forecasts, each matched to that series' own statistical behaviour rather than one templated model reused three times:

• S&P 500 forecast — thousands of simulated futures, each replaying the index's own past moves.
• VIX forecast — mean reversion — extreme readings tend to drift back to normal.
• Fear & Greed forecast — several models compared side by side, from mean reversion to machine learning.

Frequently asked questions

What does the forecast hub cover?

Three forecasts, each modelled separately: where the S&P 500 index may trade, how jumpy the market expects to be (the VIX), and how fearful or greedy the crowd is (the CNN Fear & Greed Index). Each uses the method that suits how that particular number behaves. Educational research; not investment advice.

Why do the three forecasts use different methods?

Because the three behave differently. The S&P 500 trends over time and has the occasional violent day, so we simulate thousands of possible futures built from its own past moves. The VIX does not trend — it spikes in a panic and sags in a calm, always returning to a normal level — so we model that pull back toward normal. The Fear & Greed Index is built from ingredients we can read directly, so a machine-learning model that learns from them adds something a simple model cannot. One model for all three would fit some of them badly.

Educational research only — not investment advice.