Forecasts — S&P 500, VIX, Fear & Greed
Three independently-modelled market forecasts, each matched to that series' own statistical behaviour rather than one templated model reused three times:
Frequently asked questions
- What does the /forecast hub cover?
- Three independently-modelled forecasts: the S&P 500 index level (bootstrap Monte-Carlo over historical returns), the CBOE VIX (Ornstein-Uhlenbeck mean reversion), and the CNN Fear & Greed Index (a composite ML ensemble). Each uses a different method suited to that series' statistical behaviour. Educational research; not investment advice.
- Why do the three forecasts use different methodologies?
- The S&P 500 index trends and has fat-tailed daily returns, so it is modelled with bootstrap-resampled Monte-Carlo paths. The VIX is bounded and strongly mean-reverting, so it is modelled with an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The Fear & Greed Index benefits from combining a baseline mean-reversion model with a machine-learning drift term conditioned on its own sub-indicators — a composite ensemble. Using one model for all three would fit some of them poorly.
Educational research only — not investment advice.