How to read a stock forecast — a plain-language guide

A Quantustik forecast is several numbers meant to be read together, not any one in isolation. Reading order matters: start with the range, not the headline number.

1. Start with the CI90 band, not the mean

The CI90 band tells you the range of outcomes the model actually expects, not just its single best guess. Read expected growth and target price as the center of that range, never as a promise.

2. Check whether the band has historically held

Per-ticker backtest CI90 accuracy tells you whether this specific name's past 90% bands actually contained 90% of outcomes. MAPE tells you how far off the point forecast has typically been.

3. Weigh the signal by its stated confidence, then size it

Model confidence tells you how strong the model's current view is — distinct from whether that view has historically been correct. Kelly size and recommended position size translate the edge and confidence into how much capital to actually risk. Beta and daily volatility explain why two tickers with the same expected return can warrant very different position sizes.

Frequently asked questions

What's the single most important number on a forecast?

There isn't one — the CI90 band, per-ticker backtest accuracy, model confidence, and position sizing are designed to be read together.

Should I trade on expected growth alone?

No. Expected growth is the mean of a probability distribution; trading on it alone ignores the spread and how reliable the band has historically been.

Where do I check if the model's confidence bands are honest?

The live calibration page publishes real CI90 coverage per horizon against a committed backtest, misses included.

Learn this in the Academy

See it on a ticker

Browse all S&P 500 tickers to see this metric applied to individual companies.

Related terms

Educational research only — not investment advice.