How to evaluate any forecasting tool

Intermediate-level learning path.

Every forecasting product claims an edge; few publish evidence you can check. This path teaches you to verify any tool’s claims — including Quantustik’s own — using backtests, calibration charts, and live track records rather than marketing copy.

Lessons

1. What “accuracy” really means (hit-rate vs. base rate vs. calibration) — Why a “95% accurate” headline is three different claims — directional hit-rate, base rate, and calibration — and how to tell a real edge from a coin flip.
2. Reading a calibration coverage table (do 90% intervals cover 90%?) — How to read stated-vs-actual coverage, what over- and under-confidence each mean, and a real example using our own committed calibration figures.
3. Out-of-sample testing and overfitting (why a perfect backtest is a red flag) — In-sample vs. out-of-sample testing, the red flags of an overfit backtest, and why a flawless track record is usually a warning sign rather than a selling point.
4. Survivorship bias and cherry-picked track records (what you’re not being shown) — How survivorship bias and cherry-picking quietly filter a track record to hide the losers — and the questions that reveal what you’re not being shown.
5. A checklist for vetting any forecasting tool (ours included) — Six questions to run against any forecasting product before you pay — applied honestly to Quantustik itself, pointing at our real calibration and track-record pages.

Investor education only — not investment advice, and never a promise of profit. Every investment can lose value.