The whole market, one row per indicator: what it reads today, what that means, and exactly how much it moved our verdict. Last measured September 4, 2026.
Buying conditions: 67/100 — Favorable conditions. Market conditions lean favorable versus the market's own recent history.
Higher is better: 100 = most favorable conditions, 0 = worst. This is measured against the market's own last ~6 months, not an absolute health scale — a low score means 'unusually hostile lately', never a claim about what percentage of the market is 'healthy'.
How unusual: Today is close to its own recent norm. The score compares the market against its own last 39 trading days — it is not an absolute health rating.
The signals pushing down add up to -8.86 and those pushing up to +10.19, giving 1.33. We scale that by 1.05 to allow for how much of the market is reporting earnings right now, which gives 1.40. That is then placed against the market's own recent history to produce the 0-100 score.
Signal coverage: 18/18. 18 of 18 signals had usable data today.
These are the reasons today's reading is worse. Biggest first.
| Indicator | Reading today | Effect on the score | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share of stocks going up | 32% | -5.00 | Only 32% of stocks are rising — most of the market is falling, and the index is being held up by a few large names. |
| Big institutions adding or cutting positions | 25% being added to | -3.00 | Institutions are cutting back across the board — they are taking risk off the table, not putting it on. |
| Share of companies with improving finances | 80% | -0.80 | 80% of companies show improving fundamentals. |
| Members of Congress buying stocks | ≈$+4.5M net | -0.06 | Lawmakers were net buyers (≈$4.5M) — but that is below their typical pace over the past year, too small to count as support. |
These are the reasons today's reading is better. Biggest first.
| Indicator | Reading today | Effect on the score | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Executives buying their own company's stock | 3 clusters | +6.00 | 3 companies saw several insiders buy in the same window. |
| Analysts upgrading vs downgrading | +38% net upgrades | +1.92 | Analysts are upgrading more than downgrading (+38% net). |
| Crowd mood (Fear & Greed) | 35 — Fear | +1.85 | The crowd is fearful (35/100). Because we read this backwards, that counts slightly in your favor — fear tends to mark cheaper prices, not more dangerous ones. |
| Money moving into risky or into safe sectors | +1.4% — toward risk | +0.42 | Money is rotating toward economically-sensitive sectors — investors are positioned for growth, not for trouble. |
We looked at these and they are sitting in normal territory, so they add nothing to the score today. That is itself information: it is how you can tell a calm market from a panicking one.
| Indicator | Reading today | Effect on the score | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected market swings (VIX) | 15.2 — calm | 0 — no push | At 15.2 the market is calm — traders are not pricing in trouble. Note this cuts both ways: calm is not the same as safe. |
| Is next month scarier than next quarter? | 0.86 — normal | 0 — no push | Normal: traders are no more worried about the next month than the next quarter. No imminent scare is being priced. |
| Extra interest risky companies must pay | 2.66% | 0 — no push | At 2.66% lenders are relaxed — credit markets see no distress. They usually spot trouble before the stock market does, so this is genuinely reassuring on the risk side. |
| Long-term vs short-term interest rates | +0.43% | 0 — no push | Normal (+0.43%): long-term rates sit above short-term ones, as they should in a healthy economy. |
| New unemployment claims | 230,000 a week | 0 — no push | 230,000 claims a week, which is within the normal range — the jobs market is not deteriorating. |
| How much stocks move as one block | 1.72× the random baseline | 0 — no push | At 1.72× the random baseline, stocks are moving together somewhat more than usual, but not enough to flag as fragile. |
| Sudden surge of stocks rising together | Not firing | 0 — no push | Not firing. This is the normal state; it triggers only every few years, so its silence is not bad news. |
| Our model's own 30-day S&P 500 forecast | +0.0% expected | 0 — no push | The model sees no meaningful edge either way over the next month — a coin flip, and it says so rather than inventing a direction. |
| Stocks our model rates BUY today | 0 of 503 | 0 — no push | Not a single stock currently clears our risk gates for a BUY today. |
| Analyst price targets vs actual prices | 1.16× today's price | 0 — no push | Analysts' targets (1.16× current prices) are in their normal range — analysts are structurally optimistic, so this only matters at extremes. |
Related pages:
Educational research only — not investment advice.