The whole market, one row per indicator: what it reads today, what that means, and exactly how much it moved our verdict. Last measured 2026-07-20.
Buying conditions: 17/100 — Unfavorable conditions. Market conditions lean unfavorable versus the market's own recent history; the odds here read worse than usual.
Higher is better: 100 = most favorable conditions, 0 = worst. This is measured against the market's own last ~6 months, not an absolute health scale — a low score means 'unusually hostile lately', not '11% healthy'.
How unusual: Today is clearly worse than its own recent norm. The score compares the market against its own last 120 trading days — it is not an absolute health rating.
The signals pushing down add up to -8.05 and those pushing up to +1.86, giving -6.19. We scale that by 0.95 to allow for how much of the market is reporting earnings right now, which gives -5.88. That is then placed against the market's own recent history to produce the 0-100 score.
Signal coverage: 16/18. 16 of 18 signals had usable data today. Missing: Members of Congress buying stocks, Analyst price targets vs actual prices.
These are the reasons today's reading is worse. Biggest first.
| Indicator | Reading today | Effect on the score | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share of stocks going up | 30% | -5.00 | Only 30% of stocks are rising — most of the market is falling, and the index is being held up by a few large names. |
| Share of companies with improving finances | 50% | -1.40 | Only 50% of companies show improving fundamentals — the businesses underneath the market are not strengthening. |
| Big institutions adding or cutting positions | 79% being added to | -0.80 | Institutions are adding to 79% of major names. |
| Executives buying their own company's stock | 0 clusters | -0.60 | No insider buying clusters at all. The people who know their companies best are not stepping in to buy. |
| Money moving into risky or into safe sectors | -0.9% — toward safety | -0.25 | Money is rotating into defensive sectors — investors are quietly moving to safety. |
These are the reasons today's reading is better. Biggest first.
| Indicator | Reading today | Effect on the score | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crowd mood (Fear & Greed) | 37 — Fear | +1.69 | The crowd is fearful (37/100). Because we read this backwards, that counts slightly in your favour — fear tends to mark cheaper prices, not more dangerous ones. |
| Analysts upgrading vs downgrading | +6% net upgrades | +0.17 | Analysts are upgrading more than downgrading (+6% net). |
We looked at these and they are sitting in normal territory, so they add nothing to the score today. That is itself information: it is how you can tell a calm market from a panicking one.
| Indicator | Reading today | Effect on the score | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected market swings (VIX) | 16.7 — calm | 0 — no push | At 16.7 the market is calm — traders are not pricing in trouble. Note this cuts both ways: calm is not the same as safe. |
| Is next month scarier than next quarter? | 0.86 — normal | 0 — no push | Normal: traders are no more worried about the next month than the next quarter. No imminent scare is being priced. |
| Extra interest risky companies must pay | 2.71% | 0 — no push | At 2.71% lenders are relaxed — credit markets see no distress. They usually spot trouble before the stock market does, so this is genuinely reassuring on the risk side. |
| Long-term vs short-term interest rates | +0.37% | 0 — no push | Normal (+0.37%): long-term rates sit above short-term ones, as they should in a healthy economy. |
| New unemployment claims | 190,000 a week | 0 — no push | 190,000 claims a week, which is within the normal range — the jobs market is not deteriorating. |
| How much stocks move as one block | 2.71× normal | 0 — no push | At 2.71× the random baseline, stocks are moving together somewhat more than usual, but not enough to flag as fragile. |
| Sudden surge of stocks rising together | Not firing | 0 — no push | Not firing. This is the normal state; it triggers only every few years, so its silence is not bad news. |
| Our model's own 30-day S&P 500 forecast | +0.0% expected | 0 — no push | The model sees no meaningful edge either way over the next month — a coin flip, and it says so rather than inventing a direction. |
| Stocks our model rates BUY today | 0 of 512 | 0 — no push | Not a single stock currently clears our risk gates for a BUY. The model is finding nothing worth your money today. |
We could not measure these today, so they are not in the score at all. This is not a reading of 'fine' — it is a gap, and we show it rather than hide it.
| Indicator | Reading today | Effect on the score | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Members of Congress buying stocks | No data | not counted | We could not measure this today, so it is not part of the score. That is a gap in our coverage, not a reading of 'all clear'. |
| Analyst price targets vs actual prices | No data | not counted | We could not measure this today, so it is not part of the score. That is a gap in our coverage, not a reading of 'all clear'. |
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Educational research only — not investment advice.