Yield Curve — 10-Year minus 2-Year Treasury Spread

The gap between long-term (10-year) and short-term (2-year) U.S. Treasury yields — a widely watched recession-risk gauge. A negative spread (the curve inverted) has preceded most U.S. recessions since the 1970s, with a historically variable lag. This is a public FRED series (T10Y2Y), not a Quantustik forecast model: no forecast band is applied to this series.

Current 10-Year minus 2-Year Treasury spread: 0.37 points (normal). 33th percentile of its own trailing history. -0.05pt over 30 sessions.

Frequently asked questions

What is the yield curve?

The gap between long-term and short-term U.S. Treasury yields at a given moment. This page tracks the 10-Year minus 2-Year spread, one of the most closely watched slices. Educational research; not investment advice.

What does a negative (inverted) yield curve mean?

It means short-term Treasury yields are higher than long-term ones — investors expect rates (and often growth) to fall ahead. An inverted 10Y-2Y spread has preceded most U.S. recessions since the 1970s, though the lag between inversion and recession has varied from months to over two years.

Where does this data come from?

FRED series T10Y2Y (10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity), published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Free and keyless; refreshed every 12 hours.

Is this a Quantustik forecast?

No — like the Credit Spread leaf, this page shows the public FRED series level and history only. No forecast model or confidence band is applied to this series.

Educational research only — not investment advice.