The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey polls individual (retail) investors weekly on whether they are bullish, neutral, or bearish over the next six months. The headline number is the bull–bear spread — bullish % minus bearish % — read contrarian at the extremes.
Because AAII measures how ordinary investors feel, it is usually read contrarian at the extremes: retail sentiment tends to peak near market tops (everyone already bought) and bottom near lows (everyone already sold). Example (illustrative): 45% bullish and 25% bearish is a bull–bear spread of +20 — a fairly optimistic reading a contrarian treats with mild caution. A deeply negative spread is the mirror image and has historically leaned mildly bullish.
AAII is a weak contrarian indicator, not a precise one. Sentiment can stay stretched for months without the market turning, and it tells you how the retail crowd feels rather than what institutions are doing. Quantustik tracks it as one sentiment input to its broader market-conditions read — a supporting colour, never a standalone signal.
The bullish percentage minus the bearish percentage from the weekly survey. A large positive spread means retail is broadly optimistic; a large negative spread means broadly pessimistic.
Retail sentiment tends to peak near market tops and bottom near lows, so extreme optimism leans mildly bearish and extreme pessimism leans mildly bullish.
Only mildly. It is a self-selected weekly survey of a few hundred individuals and sentiment can stay stretched for months. Quantustik uses it as one input to a broader Market Conditions score.
Browse all S&P 500 tickers to see this metric applied to individual companies.
Educational research only — not investment advice.