The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread — a classic recession leading indicator when it inverts (goes negative).
Normally longer-term lending demands a higher yield, so the curve slopes upward and the spread is positive. When the 10-year yields less than the 2-year, the curve is "inverted" — it typically means the bond market expects the Fed to cut short-term rates because the economy is slowing. A 10Y-2Y inversion has preceded every U.S. recession since the 1970s, with a lag ranging from about 6 months to over 2 years.
The 10-year Treasury yields less than the 2-year — the bond market typically expects the Fed to cut short-term rates because the economy is slowing.
It has preceded every U.S. recession since the 1970s, but the lag has ranged from about 6 months to over 2 years.
Not automatically — equities have historically kept rising for months or years after inversion. Quantustik treats it as one market-conditions input, not a standalone trigger.
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Educational research only — not investment advice.