Market Conditions vs Forecast

This overlay puts our daily Market Conditions score next to the realized S&P 500 close and its forward forecast band on one time axis, so you can look for any lead or lag yourself. It is not a proven lead-lag signal: a cross-correlation and Granger-causality test over about a year of daily readings found no statistically significant lead — the strongest relationship is contemporaneous (same-day co-movement), not the score reliably turning first.

Market Conditions today: 67/100 — Buy. As of Sep 4 2026.

S&P 500 realized close: $7,747.71 as of Sep 3 2026.

90-day forward forecast band (90% CI): $7,439.15 – $9,376.30. Probabilistic and can be wrong.

Market Conditions history: 260 daily readings from Sep 2 2025 to Sep 4 2026. Days with no stored reading are left as gaps; they are not filled in.

Market Conditions score by month (last reading of each month, 0–100)
DateScoreVerdictReading
Sep 30 202594Strong Buyreconstructed
Oct 31 202586Strong Buyreconstructed
Nov 28 202579Buyreconstructed
Dec 31 202554Neutralreconstructed
Jan 30 202644Neutralreconstructed
Feb 27 202649Neutralreconstructed
Mar 31 202673Buyreconstructed
Apr 30 202656Neutralreconstructed
May 29 202663Neutrallive
Jun 30 202642Neutrallive
Jul 31 202641Neutrallive
Aug 31 202672Buylive
Sep 4 202667Buylive

How the older readings were produced: 182 of these readings (Sep 2 2025 to Jul 22 2026) are reconstructed walk-forward from public point-in-time data, using a documented subset of the signals a live reading uses: the six continuous macro/sentiment signals (fear & greed, VIX term structure, VIX peak, high-yield spreads, jobless claims, yield curve). The event- and flow-driven signals have no usable history, so they are left out rather than filled with placeholder values. That makes the reconstructed stretch the same metric over fewer inputs, not an identical measurement. Read the older line accordingly.

Related pages:

Educational research only — not investment advice.