This overlay puts our daily Market Conditions score next to the realized S&P 500 close and its forward forecast band on one time axis, so you can look for any lead or lag yourself. It is not a proven lead-lag signal: a cross-correlation and Granger-causality test over about a year of daily readings found no statistically significant lead — the strongest relationship is contemporaneous (same-day co-movement), not the score reliably turning first.
Market Conditions today: 17/100 — Caution. As of 2026-07-20.
S&P 500 realized close: $7,443.28 as of 2026-07-20.
90-day forward forecast band (90% CI): $6,761.23 – $8,730.68. Probabilistic and can be wrong.
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Educational research only — not investment advice.