International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF): You haven't missed it, but we still wouldn't buy it.
Verdict as of .
We have no entry in IFF at any price today, because the independent signals we require to agree before buying do not agree. We would wait for that to clear rather than buy in anyway: the price isn't the problem here, the setup is, and paying less for a bad setup is still a bad trade.
Where we'd be wrong: We're wrong if IFF closes above $94.34 within three months, the top of our 90% forecast band. Above that our model under-called the move: our call failed, and we withdraw it.
The prices behind this verdict
Price today: $86.94. What one share costs right now: the price a buyer would actually pay today.
Odds it's higher in 3 months: 53%. How often our model expects this stock to be above today's price in three months. Below 50% means it leans down. It is a lean, not a certainty: 47% and 53% are both close to a coin flip.
Our 3-month estimate: $85.32. Where our model thinks the price sits in three months: the middle of our forecast, not a promise. Below today's price means buying now is paying more than we think it will be worth.
We're wrong above: $94.34. The top of our 90% forecast band. If the stock closes above it inside three months, our forecast was wrong: we under-called this move, and we withdraw this call.
Why: the risk checks behind the call
The overall market is in a friendly mood: passed (regime level 4)
Several independent signals agree: fired (the independent signals we require to agree before buying do not agree)
The strategy is not on a losing streak: skipped (not evaluated — signal already suppressed upstream)
This is not a near-copy of what we already hold: skipped (not evaluated — signal already suppressed upstream)
There is still room for another position: skipped (not evaluated — signal already suppressed upstream)
The stock is not expected to fall over the next month: skipped (not evaluated — signal already suppressed upstream)
No earnings report is uncomfortably close: skipped (not evaluated — signal already suppressed upstream)
Market fear is low enough to enter safely: skipped (not evaluated — signal already suppressed upstream)
The market as a whole is trending upward: skipped (not evaluated — signal already suppressed upstream)
The reward is big enough for the risk, at a sane position size: skipped (not evaluated — signal already suppressed upstream)
We are confident enough to publish this at all: skipped (not evaluated — signal already suppressed upstream)