PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) — You haven't missed it — but we still wouldn't buy it.
We have no entry in PHM at any price today, because the broad market is in a hostile regime, and we suspend new buy signals until it clears. Wait for that to clear rather than buying in anyway — the price isn't the problem here, the setup is, and paying less for a bad setup is still a bad trade.
Where we'd be wrong: We're wrong if PHM closes above $147.74 within three months — the top of our 90% forecast band. Above that our model under-called the move: our call failed, and you should stop waiting on it.
The prices behind this verdict
Price today: $126.08 — What one share costs right now — the price you would actually pay if you bought today.
Odds it's higher in 3 months: 50% — How often our model expects this stock to be above today's price in three months. Below 50% means it leans down. Read it as a lean, not a certainty — 47% and 53% are both close to a coin flip.
Our 3-month estimate: $126.10 — Where our model thinks the price sits in three months — the middle of our forecast, not a promise. Below today's price means buying now is paying more than we think it will be worth.
We're wrong above: $147.74 — The top of our 90% forecast band. If the stock closes above it inside three months, our forecast was wrong — we under-called this move and you should stop waiting on us.
Why — the risk checks behind the call
The overall market is in a friendly mood: fired — the broad market is in a hostile regime, and we suspend new buy signals until it clears
Several independent signals agree: skipped — not evaluated — signal already suppressed upstream
The strategy is not on a losing streak: skipped — not evaluated — signal already suppressed upstream
This is not a near-copy of what we already hold: skipped — not evaluated — signal already suppressed upstream
There is still room for another position: skipped — not evaluated — signal already suppressed upstream
The stock is not expected to fall over the next month: skipped — not evaluated — signal already suppressed upstream
No earnings report is uncomfortably close: skipped — not evaluated — signal already suppressed upstream
Market fear is low enough to enter safely: skipped — not evaluated — signal already suppressed upstream
The market as a whole is trending upward: skipped — not evaluated — signal already suppressed upstream
The reward is big enough for the risk, at a sane position size: skipped — not evaluated — signal already suppressed upstream
We are confident enough to publish this at all: skipped — not evaluated — signal already suppressed upstream