A downside marker for a stock’s forecast — the more conservative (higher, closer-to-today) of the forecast’s 25th percentile (Q25) and a level 1.5 standard deviations below today’s price. It shows where the forecast band’s downside sits.
Q25 of the forecast — the price the model estimates about a 25% chance of finishing at or below at the horizon (the bottom quarter of where it thinks price could land).
A 1.5σ volatility floor — a level set 1.5 times the stock’s expected move (its volatility, scaled to the horizon) below the current price. It keeps the marker from sitting unrealistically tight on a narrow band or too loose on a blown-out one. The platform keeps whichever of the two is closer to spot — the tighter risk budget.
The risk floor describes the forecast band’s downside — a read-out of the model’s outcome distribution, on the same footing as the Q60/Q75/Q90 upside levels beside it. It is not the execution stop for a swing trade. When the platform recommends a trade, the Position & Exits plan carries its own stop-loss and take-profit ladder, set from your entry. Read the risk floor to understand the forecast; read the trade plan’s stop to place an order.
The distance from today’s price down to the risk floor is the downside the model is asking you to accept if things go against you. Weigh it against the upside the Q60/Q75/Q90 levels sketch on the other side. A risk floor far below spot means a wide, uncertain band — a reason to size any position smaller, not larger.
No. The risk floor marks where the forecast band’s downside sits — like the Q60/Q75/Q90 upside levels, it is a read-out of the model’s distribution. A swing trade’s actual stop-loss is set separately in the Position & Exits plan, from your entry price.
The forecast’s 25th percentile (Q25) and a volatility floor 1.5 standard deviations below the current price, scaled to the horizon. The platform keeps whichever is closer to today’s price.
Yes. When the floor sits at Q25, the model itself estimates roughly a one-in-four chance price finishes at or below it by the horizon — it is a downside reference level, not a level price cannot break.
Browse all S&P 500 tickers to see this metric applied to individual companies.
Educational research only — not investment advice.