A stop-loss caps downside by closing a losing position; a take-profit locks in gains by closing (part of) a winning one — together they turn a directional call into an actual, pre-committed exit plan.
Rather than a flat percentage, both levels come from the same simulated forecast paths used for the price target: stop-loss sits near the 25th percentile of outcomes (or a volatility-based floor, whichever is closer to spot), and take-profit is a three-rung ladder at the 60th/75th/90th percentiles (TP1/TP2/TP3) — reflecting this ticker's own forecast distribution rather than a generic rule applied to every name.
A three-rung ladder locks in some gain early while leaving room for the position to keep running. Locking in the majority of a move and giving up the last stretch beats holding for a full exit and watching a trade round-trip back to breakeven.
Live example: AAPL's current 3-month plan sets a stop-loss at $260.89 and a first take-profit rung (TP1) at $359.62, both derived from the model's forecast quantiles rather than a round-number guess. See the full AAPL forecast for the complete TP1/TP2/TP3 ladder.
Then the position is simply held within its plan — neither level is a prediction that the price WILL get there, only the pre-committed action to take IF it does. A trailing stop can tighten the downside further as a position gains.
From the simulated forecast paths' 25th percentile, or a volatility-based floor, whichever is closer to the current price — capping the realized loss per trade at the smaller distance.
A TP1/TP2/TP3 ladder lets a trader lock in gains progressively as the position works, rather than holding for one all-or-nothing exit that can round-trip back to breakeven.
It means price reached that quantile of the simulated distribution — a probabilistic outcome, not a guarantee.
AAPL analysis shows this metric in context, or browse all S&P 500 tickers.
Educational research only — not investment advice.