The chance of a gain is the share of the quantum model's simulated price paths that finish above today's price at the forecast horizon — a probability, never a promise, and not the same thing as expected growth.
It is the fraction of Feynman path-integral simulated trajectories that finish above the current price at the chosen horizon — out of every simulated path the quantum model runs, it is simply the share that ended up. A reading of 70% means 7 in 10 simulated paths finished higher; it does not describe how much higher, only how many of the paths crossed today's price at all.
The chance of a gain and expected growth answer different questions: the first is the share of paths that finish up, while expected growth is the probability-weighted mean return across ALL paths. A distribution can have a high chance of a gain with a small expected growth (many paths finish barely above today's price) or a moderate chance of a gain with a large expected growth (fewer paths finish up, but those that do move a long way) — reading either number alone misses the shape of the distribution. Quantustik always shows the chance of a gain next to expected growth and the CI90 band so a visitor sees direction, magnitude, and uncertainty together, not one number in isolation.
Live example: AAPL's current 3-month growth probability (P↑) is 82% — the share of simulated price paths finishing above today's price at that horizon. See the full AAPL forecast for the accompanying expected growth and CI90 band.
A risk-first BUY only fires when multiple independent signals converge and reward-to-risk clears a 2:1 bar — it is one input among several (alongside model confidence, backtest accuracy for that ticker, and market conditions), never a standalone trigger. Combine it with the CI90 backtest accuracy for that specific ticker before trusting how well-calibrated the probability estimate actually is.
No. It means every simulated path in the model finished above today's price at that horizon — the tails of the simulated distribution happened to stay positive, not that the outcome is certain. Real markets can still produce outcomes outside the simulated range.
The chance of a gain is the share of simulated paths that finish above today's price; expected growth is the mean return across all paths. A stock can have a high chance of a gain with a small expected growth, or the reverse — the two describe different parts of the same distribution.
No. Quantustik combines the chance of a gain with model confidence, backtest accuracy, risk/reward, and market conditions — a risk-first BUY only fires when several independent signals converge, never on that figure alone.
AAPL analysis shows this metric in context, or browse all S&P 500 tickers.
Educational research only — not investment advice.