What is a swing signal in stock trading?

A short-hold (5-20 day) confluence gate that only fires BUY when quantum confidence, classifier probability, volatility, conviction and liquidity all align.

Why does the swing signal need all five conditions to align?

Requiring the quantum 90% confidence lower bound, a Random Forest buy-probability of 60%+, volatility below 50% annualized, a minimum conviction score (6.0 default), and 500K+ average daily volume to all pass at once trades off how often the signal fires (rare) for how much independent evidence backs each fire (high).

Live example: AAPL's current 10-day quantum 90% confidence lower bound and short-horizon signals are visible on the full AAPL forecast page, alongside whether the swing gate currently passes.

What happens when the setup doesn't fully pass?

Only a full pass emits BUY with a concrete ATR-based entry/stop/take-profit ladder. Everything else is WAIT, or AVOID specifically when even the quantum model's 90% confidence lower bound sits below the current price.

Frequently asked questions

What is the swing signal's typical hold period?

5 to 20 trading days — short-hold, distinct from the main long-horizon forecast signal.

What makes a swing signal fire BUY?

All five conditions passing at once: quantum confidence band, classifier probability, volatility, a minimum conviction score, and liquidity.

Why would a passing setup still show WAIT?

A relative-strength check downgrades it if the ticker has lagged the S&P 500 by more than 2% over the past 20 days.

See it on a ticker

AAPL analysis shows this metric in context, or browse all S&P 500 tickers.

Related terms

Educational research only — not investment advice.