Behind the verdict word sits a single number from 0 to 10: the conviction score. It’s a weighted ledger of eight separate signals, each pulling the score up or down — and knowing what’s on it tells you why the tool is confident, not just how much.
The composite blends eight weighted inputs. Three come from the quantum forecast model and carry most of the weight: quantum forecast direction (28%), quantum tail-risk (14%), and quantum backtest reliability (14%). Five are classical technical readings: moving-average trend (9%), MACD momentum (9%), RSI (9%), 52-week price position (9%), and path-momentum agreement (8%). Add them up and you get a 0–10 score, bucketed into Strong (8 or higher), Moderate (5 or higher), or Weak (below 5) — the conviction tier labelled on the card.
When quantum data is available for a ticker, the score is deliberately gated: if the model’s own direction or tail-risk component scores zero — meaning the forecast sees no edge, or unacceptable downside — the total is capped at 3, however bullish all five technical inputs look. It’s a guardrail against a classic trap: a stock showing every textbook bullish pattern while the underlying forecast disagrees. Technical analysis can move conviction within a range the quantum thesis allows, but it can’t rescue a thesis the model itself rates as bad. (With no quantum data at all, the gate doesn’t apply and the score falls back to technicals alone, topping out around 5.5 — never reaching Strong on chart signals alone.)
A high score means the eight signals genuinely agree — quantum and classical — not that one loud indicator overwhelmed the rest. A middling score often means the quantum and technical readings are pulling against each other, which tells you the setup is contested, not clean. Read the tier as a measure of agreement, and you’ll trust the strong ones more and the weak ones appropriately less.
This lesson is investor education, not personalized advice. The conviction score summarizes model and technical signals; it is not a guarantee of an outcome and never a personalized instruction to trade.
Live example: AAPL’s current 3-month conviction score is 5.0/10 (Moderate tier). Open the AAPL card to see which of the eight components pushed it up or down.
A composite of 8 or higher out of 10. Moderate is 5 or higher, and anything below 5 is Weak.
Yes. When quantum data is available and the model’s direction or tail-risk component scores zero, the total is capped at 3 however bullish the technical inputs look — a guardrail against a perfect chart over a bad forecast.
The quantum forecast direction (28%) is the single heaviest input, followed by quantum tail-risk and quantum backtest reliability (14% each). The five technical readings carry roughly 8–9% each.
Investor education only — not investment advice, and never a promise of profit. Every investment can lose value.