What is the conviction score?

A single 0-10 number blending how strongly several signals agree about a stock — the raw score behind the Strong / Moderate / Weak conviction tier. Higher means more of the platform’s signals point the same way at once.

What goes into the score

It is a weighted blend of seven scored components. Three come from the quantum forecast and carry the most weight: quantum direction (30%), quantum tail-risk (15%) and quantum reliability (15%) — 60% in total. The other four are classical technical-analysis confirmations, each a tenth: trend/MA (10%), MACD (10%), RSI (10%) and 52-week position (10%). The quantum thesis leads; the technicals fine-tune it. A path-momentum row is also shown for transparency, but it carries zero weight and does not affect the score — we backtested it and it earned nothing.

The gate: technicals can never rescue a weak quantum thesis

The blend is deliberately gated. If the quantum direction or tail-risk component scores zero — the model itself sees no edge or unacceptable downside — the whole score is capped at 3.0, no matter how bullish every technical input looks. That is the point of the score: a picture-perfect chart cannot manufacture conviction the underlying forecast doesn’t support.

What the number is — and is not

Read it as a transparency and heuristic blend, not a calibrated probability. An 8/10 is not “an 80% chance” — it is a weighted summary of how aligned the signals are, on a scale chosen for readability, with no standalone hit-rate or performance claim attached. Use it to compare setups at a glance and see why a stock screens well, then confirm with expected growth and the ticker’s own BUY / WAIT / AVOID verdict.

Frequently asked questions

Does an 8/10 conviction score mean an 80% chance of a gain?

No. It is a transparency/heuristic blend on a 0-10 readability scale, not a calibrated probability. It summarises how aligned the signals are — no probability or hit-rate is attached to the number.

Can strong technicals produce a high score on their own?

No. The blend is gated: a zero quantum direction or tail-risk component caps the total at 3.0 however favorable the technicals look — technicals cannot rescue a weak quantum thesis.

How does the conviction score relate to the conviction tier?

The tier is the score in bands: Strong is 8+, Moderate is 5+, below 5 is Weak. Same number, coarser label.

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Related terms

Educational research only — not investment advice.